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<jats:p>Snapshots from the American Association of Physical Anthropologists meeting include a piece of a thighbone that fits perfectly on top of a broken bone found 29 years earlier and three new wrist bones from a second individual of the diminutive "Hobbit" from the Indonesian island of Flores.</jats:p>

<jats:p> Using a regionally calibrated model, Sinervo <jats:italic>et al</jats:italic> . (Reports, 14 May 2010, p. 894) predicted potential climate change impacts on lizard populations and estimated that many extinctions are under way. We argue that this model is not sufficient for predicting global losses in lizard species in response to anthropogenic climate change. </jats:p>

<jats:p> We derived physiological models that accurately predicted extinctions of Mexican and other lizards. Clusella-Trullas and Chown argue that global forecasts are unreliable without incorporating variance in microenvironmental temperatures, <jats:italic>T</jats:italic> <jats:sub>e</jats:sub> . Here, we show that <jats:italic>T</jats:italic> <jats:sub>e</jats:sub> variance is small relative to <jats:italic>T</jats:italic> <jats:sub>e</jats:sub> increases from climate warming. Thus, extinction forecasts are reliable ( <jats:inline-formula> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msup> <mml:mover accent="true"> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mo>¯</mml:mo> </mml:mover> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msup> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.72</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> </jats:inline-formula> ) even without <jats:italic>T</jats:italic> <jats:sub>e</jats:sub> variance data. </jats:p>