Catálogo de publicaciones - revistas

<jats:p>East Asia's "tigers" are striving to boost falling birth rates. But will their pronatalist policies work?</jats:p>

<jats:p>A new theory proposes that swelling groups of young people, or "youth bulges," lead to conflict</jats:p>

<jats:p>A growing corps of graying women are actively engaged in the civic life of their often male-dominated communities, taking on stabilizing social roles that others sometimes can't.</jats:p>

<jats:p> <jats:italic>Science</jats:italic> has created several "snapshots," descriptions of composite characters, to try to capture some of the demographic trends that set countries and regions apart. </jats:p>

<jats:p>The public health community is sounding the alarm about the global epidemic of chronic diseases, but there are no easy fixes.</jats:p>

<jats:p>During the economic transition from foraging to farming, the signal of a major demographic shift can be observed in cemetery data of world archaeological sequences. This signal is characterized by an abrupt increase in the proportion of juvenile skeletons and is interpreted as the signature of a major demographic shift in human history, known as the Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT). This expresses an increase in the input into the age pyramids of the corresponding living populations with an estimated increase in the total fertility rate of two births per woman. The unprecedented demographic masses that the NDT rapidly brought into play make this one of the fundamental structural processes of human history.</jats:p>

<jats:p>The world is currently in the midst of the greatest demographic upheaval in human history. Dramatic reductions in mortality, followed (but with a lag) by equally marked reductions in fertility, resulted in a doubling of world population between 1960 and 2000. A further increase of 2 to 4.5 billion is projected for the current half-century, with the increase concentrated in the world’s least developed countries. Despite alarmist predictions, historical increases in population have not been economically catastrophic. Moreover, changes in population age structure have opened the door to increased prosperity. Demographic changes have had and will continue to have profound repercussions for human well-being and progress, with some possibilities for mediating those repercussions through policy intervention.</jats:p>

<jats:p>Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?</jats:p>

<jats:p>Population growth remains rapid in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, despite substantial AIDS mortality. Voluntary family-planning programs reduce unplanned pregnancies by providing access to and information about contraception and by reducing socioeconomic obstacles to use. With sufficient political will and resources, well-run voluntary programs have been shown to bring about sustained declines in fertility and population growth across much of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, simply by permitting people to realize their individual reproductive goals. Such programs represent a cost-effective approach to relieving population pressures, stimulating economic development, improving health, and enhancing human freedom.</jats:p>

<jats:p>This paper discusses emerging demographic patterns and its opportunities and challenges for India. It investigates the specificities in the demographic transition in terms of various demographic parameters and the lack of homogeneity in the transition across states in the country. It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labor shortage in some parts. At the same time, there are serious challenges in the form of enhancing human capital development, addressing the issue of skewed sex ratio, and the possible rise in social and political unrest and conflict.</jats:p>